Last post, I took a look at what makes an effective vice presidential pick, which is to say not much. The media overhypes this relatively ultimately worthless decision, but it does serve one useful purpose, as I stated before: picking their possible successors is the only truly presidential decision that candidates will make before being sworn in. So it gives you a clue into how the candidate may pick cabinet members, political allies, and potential political enemies, as well as the style they may use to govern once in office.
In looking over choices for the past few decades, a few things seem clear to me: 1.) the geographic pick is probably bullshit, 2.) the “consolidating the base” pick is probably even worse, and 3.) a pick toward the middle probably helps.
In the end, the strength of the candidate is the most important thing. But this year, we have two historically weak candidates in Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Both have very entrenched unfavorable images in the public’s eye. So, ironically, this election might be a good one for vice presidential candidates. In most elections, the veep probably means nothing, to even less than nothing, to voters. In this one, however, there could be a solid possibility that the decision could have a legitimate impact with voters.
So, with the Republican convention coming first, let’s start with Donald Trump and his options.
The Ones Who Would Probably Have Him
These people would probably join his ticket, but from whom Trump should probably politely run in the other direction.
Bob Corker
Who is he? Exactly. If Trump is going for a Republican insider with governing experience to reassure the public on his governing ability, then he he needs to pick someone well known to the public that they know, and the Tennessee senator is not that person.
Steve King
If you want to double down on the racism and nativism of the campaign, then the Iowan representative is your man. But Trump should have that constituency already sown up.
Mike Pence
As an important member of the House Republican caucus for more than a decade and the current governor of a state with one of the lower unemployment rates in the country, Indiana governor Pence should be a shoo-in for the Trump campaign to chase.
However, as the governor who signed the first anti-LGBT “religious liberty” laws in the country, choosing Pence throws the campaign right into the middle of that controversy, which has been one of the few standard GOP positions from which Trump has tried to distance himself. Picking Pence puts Trump solidly in the anti-queer camp, where he doesn’t want to be.
Also, much of that low unemployment rate for Indiana, which relies a lot on manufacturing and small business industry, has come about because of the Obama administration’s bailout of the auto industry. If Trump picks Pence, all of that will be headline news and picked apart and detailed for weeks by the media. A running mate whose political fortune relies heavily on economic support from the Obama administration shoot holes through much of Trump’s economic claims.
Jeff Sessions
If Bob Corker isn’t well known enough, Steve King is too much of a nativist, and Mike Pence is too anti-gay, why would you pick someone who is the worst parts of all three?
Those Who Almost Certainly Would Turn Him Down
So those are the ones Donald Trump should probably turn down. How about the ones he should consider but would almost certainly say no to him?
Anyone of the finalists he beat in the primaries
Anyone of the other major contenders that he beat in the primaries—even sad, tired, sad Jeb Bush—would help him consolidate the party and put a happy face on the GOP for the November run. It would most certainly help with the down-ticket congressional races. And it would convince a few people to eat shit and vote for him who otherwise would stay home, and also lend an air of legitimacy that the campaign now lacks.
But this ain’t gonna happen. Seriously. No way. Even if hell froze over.
A well-known military leader
Not crazy Admiral Stockdale quality “military” figures, but a legitimate military leader of the past few decades who is already known to the American public.
Like … Gen. David Petraeus.
The four-star general, architect and leader of the surge in Iraq who saved George W. Bush’s political bacon, head of CentCom and then the CIA, was for more than a decade the Republicans’ wet dream of a bastard political child of a more-political Dwight Eisenhower and less-crazy Douglas MacArthur. But then he went and gave classified intel to his mistress who fell off the crazy wagon and got him indicted. The charges were reduced to a single misdemeanor, which probably still legally makes him eligible to run, but the political damage has been done and Trump can’t handle the hypocrisy of picking someone who handled classified info in a worse manner than Hillary Clinton and her staff did.
Oh yeah … also Petraeus is supporting Clinton.
Or like … Stanley McChrystal.
Another four-star general, head of the Afghan theater who was popular but mouthed off to Rolling Stone about his dissatisfaction with Barack Obama, his commander in chief. Removed from his role soon after and resigned from the military. Again, Republicans would love to have him.
Except … McChrystal is a big supporter of gun control … and, oh yeah … he also supports Hillary Clinton.
Two down, so how about … Ray Odierno?
Head of command for the Iraq war theater after Petraeus, Odierno is the final face of the modern American military triumvirate, the lesser-known one (like Crassus, I guess). But surely in Odierno the GOP can find a military stalwart willing to carry the Republican standard into a new era?
Nope, sorry Republicans … another Hillary Clinton supporter here. Strike three; you’re out.
Nikki Haley
Despite being married to a few of them, cheating on those wives with at least a few more, and even fathering a couple, Donald Trump is toxic with women voters.
Having a capable woman on the ticket could help with this problem. And if Trump could find a capable woman to join the ticket with him, it would probably do wonders. You know, someone like the South Carolina governor, Nikki Haley. But Haley already choked down enough vomit endorsing Ted Cruz during the primaries, so Trump is most likely a mouthful of puke too far.
Paul Ryan
Hey Paul Ryan, wanna be the running mate on the second-consecutive losing GOP ticket? Didn’t think so.
Most Likely Choices
That gets us past the people Donald Trump shouldn’t pick as well as the ones who won’t touch his day-glo orange ass with a 10-foot pole. Who’s left?
Chris Christie
The Donald’s first official, legitimate supporter, Christie has been in the lead for the veep nod ever since. But I don’t think it will be him. Trump needs someone who is experienced and effective at governing. Christie has the experience, as well as a good deal of camera-readiness. But his “effectiveness” is up for debate. And if Trump picks him, then stories of Christie’s political scandals will be front-page news potentially for weeks.
But here’s the main reason in favor of Christie accepting the job: He desperately needs to get the fuck out of New Jersey. He was reelected in 2013, and has another one coming up next year … which he’ll lose. In a normally Democratic state that elects Republicans only when they’re tired of the sad choices the Democrats put up, Christie would probably lose to a basketball wearing a wig right now. Currently he has Congress-level low approval polls after burning a ton of bridges (not entirely a metaphor) in New Jersey the past few years and racking up petty political scandals by the handful. He needs a job at the national level to save political face and keep his future alive.
Having said that, there’s no way that he wants to be responsible for the Donald Trump Greatest Traveling Shit Show on Earth. He wants a position that gives him visibility and leaves him with a future but allows him to distance himself from the actual administration’s decision making when he needs to do so. This former U.S. Attorney wants, in other words, to be the United States Attorney General.
But if The Donald can’t find anyone else, at all, to accept the VP gig, then he can probably bully Chris Christie into taking it, against Christie’s better judgment.
Newt Gingrich
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Newt is probably the man for the job. In fact, I can’t believe I’m saying that about any job …
But there it is.
Trump needs …
Someone with experience governing. Check for Newt.
Someone that the Republican establishment is cozy with. Again, one for Newt.
Someone who is in with the Tea Party. Newt led them before they were even born.
Hates the Clintons. No one hates the Clintons more than Newt. Seriously, who could?
Has nothing to lose. Even Fox News is starting to get tired of Newt.
Gingrich’s political career is basically over. He’ll never again be a serious contender for a national political office again, certainly nothing as high up as the presidency. But … he could work as a second banana in a long-shot campaign like Trump’s. For one thing, Trump needs someone who will go All Chips In with him, and there’s nothing to hold Newt back. Two, everyone would have to come back for another round of supplication and kissing Gingrich’s ring, and he’d love that. Gingrich knows how to raise money through official sources as well as how to “not officially cooperate” but actually cooperate with Super PACs in a way that Trump and his people aren’t politically adept enough to do.
In addition, he’s just as liable to stick his foot in his mouth as Trump. Normally, this would be a bad thing, but a well-timed stupid gaff by Gingrich could take the heat off Trump saying something equally stupid. Remember, no one actually cares about the VP, so in a weird way, mild occasional incompetence in a running mate could actually work to Trump’s favor. Whereas Dan Quayle was an anchor around George H.W. Bush’s ankle, Gingrich could be the occasional life preserver for the oversized Oompa Loompa that beat Bush’s son. Irony is a beautiful thing, isn’t it?
But most importantly, the nomination would give Gingrich a chance for revenge on the Clintons. One of the usual jobs for the veep candidate is as an “attack dog” against the other candidate, and since Bill Clinton played Gingrich so … So … SO badly their last go-around, Newt would probably relish a chance to try to turn the tables on the next Clinton. In the Nineties, Bill Clinton turned a sure win for Gingrich and the Republicans into such an embarrassing defeat for them that he basically drove Newt out of Congress. Gingrich would love the opportunity to turn that back around.
Or Trump could make some weird throw from left field
Doubtful.
Everyone loves to say how unconventional Donald Trump’s campaign has been, so who knows? Maybe Trump will pick some random person no one knows about? Right? Because he’s like, crazy, or some shit? Right?
The latest weird speculation, according to the Washington Post and others, is retired Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn, former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency currently advising Trump on foreign policy. But I don’t think Trump will do anything like this. First, in specific, Flynn seems to be (as is Trump, in reality, most likely) Pro Choice, and that won’t sit well with GOP voters.
More importantly, however, while it seems that Trump is incompetent as a political campaigner, he does seem to understand the media. And he understands, maybe better than anyone, that our 24-hour news services has a 5-minute attention span on a 30-minute news cycle. Story … repeat five times in a row … new story … repeat five times … wash … rinse … repeat. Trump knows that he doesn’t have months to introduce a new player to the American public. He needs someone they already know AND who can help him, and then they quickly keep the heat back on the Clinton campaign and off their own.
And that’s why my money’s on Gingrich, the Clinton-attacking bulldog who is about to get his last 15-minute shot at fame. Good luck Newt, you’re going to need it.